Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California
Fisher A, Saniee K, van der Heide C and others. Insects, November 2018.
Read the paper Free to read · doi:10.3390/insects9040167
What this paper is about
Overwintering groves in California are known from recent surveys, historical records and a long-running public database. The authors used the climate at those sites to model where else in Santa Barbara County groves could occur.
The model put them along the coast at low elevation, matching the real distribution, and was then run forward under climate change.
Summarised here from the abstract below. Not the authors’ words.
Abstract
We use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations are known from recent and historical surveys and a long-term citizen science database. The climatic niche model performs well, predicting that overwintering habitat is most likely to occur along the coast and at low elevations, as shown by empirical data. We then use climatic variables in conjunction with climate change scenarios to model the future location of overwintering habitat, and find a substantial shift in the predicted distribution. Under a plausible scenario, the probability of occurrence of overwintering habitat directly reflects elevation, with coastal regions having a reduced probability relative to today, and higher elevation sites increasing in probability. Under a more extreme scenario, high probability sites are only located along ridgelines and in mountaintop regions of the county. This predicted shift in distribution is likely to have management implications, as sites that currently lack monarchs may become critical to conservation in the future. Our results suggest that estimating the size of the western overwintering population in the future will be problematic, unless annual counts compensate for a shift in the distribution and a potential change in the number and location of occupied sites.
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Milkweed USA. (2026). Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California (listing). Retrieved DATE, from https://milkweedusa.com/research/climatic-niche-model-for-overwintering-monarch-butterflies-in-a-2018/
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title = {Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California (listing)},
author = {{Milkweed USA}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://milkweedusa.com/research/climatic-niche-model-for-overwintering-monarch-butterflies-in-a-2018/},
note = {Accessed DATE}
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